March 6th, 2011 at 11:52 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
<–click on the graphics to enlarge. This is the CFS model spring seasonal forecast for the U.S. If you’ve followed the blog, you know that I disagreed with this model for last summer. You can read
the forecast that I made last May for the summer and talked about this model. This year the model looks better to me, with warm and dry conditions centered over the southern Plains states (drought in Texas/Oklahoma) and a little cooler than average weather from the Pacific NW into the northern Plains. I am worried about tornadoes from Arkansas and Tennessee up into the southern Great Lakes. Hopefully, most of the tornadoes stay south of us..most. A few years with slightly weakening tornadoes have had big tornado seasons. Note that if it’s warmer than average in the South and cooler than average in the North, that would provide some nice contrast for spring/summer storms. This pattern would set us up for a couple of derecho-type large-scale area wind events. Temperatures will be cooler in Michigan this spring-summer than last summer, but not too far from normal. Rainfall in summer is very spotty. One county can be above average and the next county below average, but overall the Great Lakes may be a little above average. The Great Lakes water levels are relatively low now and could use a boost.
SIDE NOTE: Among my 5,000 facebook friends is Louise Keur from Fruitport who is 98 years old today! It’s cool enough to have a 98th birthday, but to be tech. savvy at 98 is spectacular!
<–click on the graphics to enlarge. This is the CFS model spring seasonal forecast for the U.S. If you’ve followed the blog, you know that I disagreed with this model for last summer. You can read the forecast that I made last May for the summer and talked about this model. This year the model looks better to me, with warm and dry conditions centered over the southern Plains states (drought in Texas/Oklahoma) and a little cooler than average weather from the Pacific NW into the northern Plains. I am worried about tornadoes from Arkansas and Tennessee up into the southern Great Lakes. Hopefully, most of the tornadoes stay south of us..most. A few years with slightly weakening tornadoes have had big tornado seasons. Note that if it’s warmer than average in the South and cooler than average in the North, that would provide some nice contrast for spring/summer storms. This pattern would set us up for a couple of derecho-type large-scale area wind events. Temperatures will be cooler in Michigan this spring-summer than last summer, but not too far from normal. Rainfall in summer is very spotty. One county can be above average and the next county below average, but overall the Great Lakes may be a little above average. The Great Lakes water levels are relatively low now and could use a boost. SIDE NOTE: Among my 5,000 facebook friends is Louise Keur from Fruitport who is 98 years old today! It’s cool enough to have a 98th birthday, but to be tech. savvy at 98 is spectacular!
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