September 18th, 2010 at 12:19 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
<– The first map is the Winter Temperature Anomaly Map for the U. S. (it was a cold winter for much of the country) for last winter. The second map is the Summer Temperature Anomaly Map (it was a warm summer for much of the country – which by the way was forecast well on the blog
here,
here,
here and several other places that I don’t have the time to find). I’ve dropped hints on the blog for a few months now…my key word for Michigan this winter is “volatile”. I think we get above average precipitation for a good portion of the winter. The question will be: “How much of that is snow and how much is cold rain/sleet/freezing rain, etc.” They should have a dandy winter in the U.P. This is going to be a hard winter to forecast. We could have more days over 40 than last winter AND more nights below +5. I think we have a better than average chance of getting a freezing rain event and a better than average chance of getting a significant snowfall (+8″) from a single storm. I think the South and Southeast (south of a line from Oklahoma City to Washington, D.C.) will be warmer than last winter and the Pacific Northwest will be cooler. The last time we had a quick flip from Moderate El Nino to Moderate La Nina that was similar to this year was 1998-99. That year we had a relatively short, but intense winter. That year it was warmer than average through Dec. 19 – then it was winter! In two weeks from Dec. 31 to Jan. 13th, Grand Rapids got 43.4″ of snow (57% of all the snow that fell in 2 weeks). From Dec. 30 to Jan. 15, it never got warmer than 25. Then it warmed up. We had 12 days of 40 or better in February, inc. a warmest-ever-in-February 69 on 2/11. We did get 14″ of snow in 5 days in early March. January, February and April were all wetter than average. I do think winter and lake effect snow will come earlier this year than in 1998. The La Nina should bring storms into the Great Lakes region and the cold PDO should keep the mean trough from Alaska down the West Coast or just offshore…that means we shouldn’t have a super cold winter
overall. However, if it’s windy and damp, you might not think of it as warmer than average when it’s done. The roller coaster ride will probably start in November. Put you’re seatbelt on and come back to the blog to share the ride. (feel free to bounce the link to this thread around to your friends).
<– The first map is the Winter Temperature Anomaly Map for the U. S. (it was a cold winter for much of the country) for last winter. The second map is the Summer Temperature Anomaly Map (it was a warm summer for much of the country – which by the way was forecast well on the blog here, here, here and several other places that I don’t have the time to find). I’ve dropped hints on the blog for a few months now…my key word for Michigan this winter is “volatile”. I think we get above average precipitation for a good portion of the winter. The question will be: “How much of that is snow and how much is cold rain/sleet/freezing rain, etc.” They should have a dandy winter in the U.P. This is going to be a hard winter to forecast. We could have more days over 40 than last winter AND more nights below +5. I think we have a better than average chance of getting a freezing rain event and a better than average chance of getting a significant snowfall (+8″) from a single storm. I think the South and Southeast (south of a line from Oklahoma City to Washington, D.C.) will be warmer than last winter and the Pacific Northwest will be cooler. The last time we had a quick flip from Moderate El Nino to Moderate La Nina that was similar to this year was 1998-99. That year we had a relatively short, but intense winter. That year it was warmer than average through Dec. 19 – then it was winter! In two weeks from Dec. 31 to Jan. 13th, Grand Rapids got 43.4″ of snow (57% of all the snow that fell in 2 weeks). From Dec. 30 to Jan. 15, it never got warmer than 25. Then it warmed up. We had 12 days of 40 or better in February, inc. a warmest-ever-in-February 69 on 2/11. We did get 14″ of snow in 5 days in early March. January, February and April were all wetter than average. I do think winter and lake effect snow will come earlier this year than in 1998. The La Nina should bring storms into the Great Lakes region and the cold PDO should keep the mean trough from Alaska down the West Coast or just offshore…that means we shouldn’t have a super cold winter overall. However, if it’s windy and damp, you might not think of it as warmer than average when it’s done. The roller coaster ride will probably start in November. Put you’re seatbelt on and come back to the blog to share the ride. (feel free to bounce the link to this thread around to your friends).
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