ZCZC AP46
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46 ARLP046
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 19, 2010
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP046
ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA
Five new sunspot groups appeared in the past nine days, and the
average daily sunspot number for the November 11-17 period rose
nearly 28 points from the week before to 60.9. Average daily solar
flux was up nearly four points to 87.9.
The current forecast from NOAA/USAF shows a planetary A index of 5
on every day through the end of November, and the predicted solar
flux on November 19 at 86, 84 on November 20-24, 82 on November
25-26, and then 80 through the end of the month.
Geophysical Institute Prague has a somewhat different outlook from
NOAA/USAF. They see quiet geomagnetic conditions for November
19-20, quiet to unsettled November 21, unsettled November 22-23, and
quiet again on November 24-25.
Conditions should be good during the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes this
weekend. Latest predictions show continued solar activity with low
geomagnetic activity levels.
Dean Straw, N6BV gave a presentation in October at Pacificon 2010
titled "Seeing the HF Propagation Big Picture." The slides are
available in a PDF file at http://tinyurl.com/2fgrnlm. Download the
file, and be sure to click through pages 11-14 to see the predicted
propagation shifting over time.
Note that the images from the STEREO mission at
http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov now show nearly the entire Sun. This
weekend the project achieves 97% coverage of the Sun.
Patrick Weatherford, AE5PW of Newport, Arkansas (about 70 miles WNW
of Memphis) wrote to tell us of the fun he had on the air on
Thursday. Running 100 watts from a ground-mounted vertical, from
2106-2156z on 20 meter SSB he worked PJ5/SP6IXF in St. Eustatius and
Saba Island, VP2V/NY6X on 20 CW in the British Virgin Islands,
PJ5/SP6EQZ on 15 meter CW, YV5AEA in Venezuela on 15 meter PSK31,
J29WTA on 17 meter SSB in Dominica, YL2SW/MM near Nigeria on 17
meter CW, C5OC on 20 meter SSB in The Gambia, and KH2/N2NL on 17
meter CW in Guam. Following that, he worked both Central and South
American stations on 20 meter PSK31. Conditions have been helped by
the increased sunspot numbers.
Jon Jones, N0JK in Wichita, Kansas wrote to tell us about sporadic
E-skip on 6 meters on November 13. He worked K6JSV at 2028z on
50.125 MHz, from DM12 to EM18. There were reports of a number of
beacons copied. N0LL/B in EL09ql was copied by WA5IYX in EM09ow,
K7EK/B in DM43 was copied by AC7XP in CN87, and XE2K/B in DN17nt was
copied by W7MEM in DM22.
On November 14 Dave Sarault, N3XF experienced a great opening on 10
meters. He was operating WP2B in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Dave
wrote, "Today, November 14th I was operating from Brad's station and
experienced the best 10 meter opening I can remember in several
years. I ran a pile up from 2015z to 2125z with signals from W1 and
W2 running 40 dB over S9 from stations running 100 watts into
verticals and dipoles. Also I was able to work mobiles who were
stepping over guys running big beams! It reminded me of 10 meters in
the glory days a few cycles ago. The band changed quickly, and at
2100z I worked several W6s, but that lasted about 15 minutes and
they were gone."
Check out the interesting narrative about stealth operation at West
Point by WP2B on his qrz.com page at http://www.qrz.com/db/wp2b.
Next week for the Thanksgiving holiday this bulletin will be on a
different schedule. Only the version of the bulletin linked from
the http://www.arrl.org home page will go up on Friday, November 26.
The bulletin won't be emailed to readers or transmitted from W1AW
until Monday, November 29.
If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at
http://arrl.org/propagation-
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-
propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-
information and tutorials on propagation at
http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
Sunspot numbers for November 11 through 17 were 48, 68, 63, 69, 62,
55, and 61, with a mean of 60.9. 10.7 cm flux was 84.5, 85.4, 85.4,
86.4, 90.8, 91.8 and 91.2 with a mean of 87.9. Estimated planetary A
indices were 15, 15, 8, 7, 7, 6 and 4 with a mean of 8.9. Estimated
mid-latitude A indices were 12, 9, 4, 5, 5, 4 and 3 with a mean of
6.
NNNN
/EX
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